Consumer sentiment at lowest since last year
10 hours 32 minutes ago
A national survey of public perceptions of the economy found that consumers are becoming more optimistic about inflation, but lower-income earners are more concerned about the economy’s upturn.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index continued to fall in July, its lowest level since November 2023 and the fourth consecutive monthly decline for the widely followed index.
But Joanne Hsu, head of research, said consumer sentiment had been “effectively unchanged” over the past three months and this month’s month-on-month decline was “statistically insignificant.”
“Consumer sentiment has risen 33% from its record low in June 2022, but caution remains as high prices continue to dampen consumer sentiment, especially among lower-income earners,” Su wrote. “Labor market expectations remain relatively stable, continuing to support consumer spending.”
Oren Krachikin, financial markets economist at Nationwide, wrote that the report highlighted the differences between high-income and low-income earners.
“In short, while higher-income earners are generally enthusiastic, lower-income earners are struggling,” Klutchkin wrote. “Lower-income households stand to feel the most pain from the coming economic slowdown because they haven’t benefited from the rising stock and home prices that would have helped them weather slowing income growth.”
-Terry Lane
The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge fell in June
14 hours 29 minutes ago
The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge fell slightly in June, paving the way for the central bank to probably cut interest rates as soon as September.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rose 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.6% in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The PCE inflation reading for June, released Friday, mirrored the trend shown by the Consumer Price Index earlier this month.
The PCE inflation measure is particularly important because it is the central bank’s primary focus in setting the nation’s monetary policy. The Fed has kept its influential federal funds rate at a 23-year high since last July as it seeks to drive inflation to its annual target of 2%.
Economists and traders widely expect the Fed to keep its key inflation measure at current levels in July and begin cutting rates from September.
