A new report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that the recent surge in immigration will have a positive impact on the U.S. economy well into the next decade.
CBO analyzed a surge in immigration from 2021 to 2026 (about 8.7 million people) and the impact it would have on stimulating economic activity through 2034. The report’s findings contrast with several recent polls that show growing anti-immigrant sentiment across the country as Election Day approaches.
“With less than 100 days left in the presidential campaign, the stakes couldn’t be higher and the contrasts couldn’t be sharper or more crucial,” said Vanessa Cardenas, executive director of the nonprofit America’s Voice. “The right’s portrayal of immigrants and migrants as a national extinction-level threat is thought-provoking and ugly. As an organization, our ‘candidates’ aim to fight for immigration reform and an America that recognizes immigrants and migrants as a national strength.”
The report reflects existing research showing how immigration boosts the American economy and wages. The CBO reasoned that an immigration tax would exceed the cost of social services and raise $1.2 trillion in federal revenues, stimulating the economy in addition to mandatory spending and interest on the debt.
“Now is the perfect time to expand legal immigration, make it a more orderly, employment-driven process, and reap the benefits,” Giovanni Peri, a researcher at the University of California, Davis, told Forbes.
But a new poll finds that more American adults want to cut immigration — the first time a majority of respondents (55%) say so since 2005. About 30% of Americans say immigration is the top issue in this election, according to a February Gallup poll.
Gallup researchers say the change in attitudes could be due to the record number of illegal border crossings late last year, which have fallen significantly but are still above pre-pandemic levels. Anti-immigrant sentiment was at its highest during California’s mass immigration in the early and mid-1990s and after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
The poll found that 64% of Americans now have a negative view of immigrants, down from 77% in 2020 but higher than 52% in 2001. The researchers said this negative view is primarily driven by Republicans.
A quarter of registered voters say candidates need to share their views on immigration to win their votes, and Republicans are more likely to feel that way.
“The evidence is overwhelming that immigrants help our communities grow and prosper – they participate and contribute to their communities, grow our economy, pay taxes and make our regions stronger,” said Heidi Altman, director of federal advocacy at the National Immigration Law Center. “Policymakers must reject rhetoric rooted in fear around immigration. This rhetoric is not only dangerous, it causes significant harm and leads to bad policies that exacerbate existing problems.”
The CBO report also found that increased immigration tends to drive state and local government spending (mainly on education, health care, and housing) outpaces revenues, but that most new immigrants are under 55 and of working age. They’re more likely to join the workforce, which boosts local economic growth, according to the CBO. In total, immigrants in the surge population would pay about $788 billion in income and payroll taxes over a decade.
The agency expects the impact on revenues and mandatory spending to continue growing beyond 2034.
