This article was republished from Sequencer and lightly edited for Slate. This is part of Slate’s 2024 Olympics coverage. Read more here.
The Olympics are just around the corner. Like any other sports fan, I am engrossed in the excitement of athletes trying to break new world records. Perhaps there is no better place to witness new heights in sports than the Olympic Games. The Olympic motto is “Faster, Higher, Stronger” – surpassing traditional limits.
But in the age of climate change, we should add another solemn adjective to this motto: “it’s getting warmer.” Of course, this is more realistic than ambitious, but it’s still record-breaking. And the heat has the potential to dwarf other indicators, considering this year’s Olympics will be the hottest ever. (The gold medal in this race to the bottom is currently held by the Summer Olympics in Tokyo in 2021, but the Paris Olympics is on track to overtake its predecessor.) Rising temperatures may be one of the few records broken this summer, as they chip away at athletes’ chances of making history on the Olympic stage.
Certainly, records depend a lot on circumstances. To set a new record, it takes more than just a person’s talent and hard work. It also requires a combination of good circumstances and luck.
At the 1968 Mexico City Olympics, the world witnessed American long jumper Bob Beamon make history with a staggering leap of 29 feet, 2 1/4 inches, breaking the previous world record by nearly two feet. Analysts say Beamon’s leap was aided by thinner-than-normal air at an altitude of 7,520 feet, creating a legal tailwind. It’s unclear how much the venue helped Beamon achieve his feat; fellow American Mike Powell beat Beamon’s record at the 1991 World Championships in Tokyo in less favorable conditions. But any athlete looking to break a record would love all the extra help he can get.
These days, breaking world records in sports is often more of a provocation than a coup. New records come about by taking just a small step forward from a current milestone. For example, the previous world record for the men’s half marathon, 57 minutes 32 seconds, was broken by just one second in 2021. Now, climate change is disrupting all of that.
In theory, rising temperatures could provide slight benefits. Because air density decreases with temperature, one can speculate that sports where air resistance is the biggest enemy could see a slight benefit. There’s even evidence that climate change could make certain spectator sports more exciting. One 2023 study found that rising temperatures could lead to more home runs in baseball because they reduce the drag forces acting on the ball.
The sports that would benefit most from rising temperatures would be those that require speed, such as the javelin (up to 70 mph) and discus (up to 45 mph). Humans themselves can’t move fast enough to notice the reduced drag caused by thinner air, and jumping and racing events would probably be unaffected.
Rising temperatures have a very direct effect on athletic performance in most cases. It’s hard to perform at your best in the heat. If you’ve ever exercised on a hot, humid day, you’ve probably felt sluggish. That’s your body’s way of signaling you to slow down as it juggles the competing priorities of cooling yourself down and getting oxygen to your muscles. With limited blood volume, your heart has to pump twice as hard to meet both needs.
I live in Washington DC and the humidity here is horrible during the summer. Right now, the thought of running outside in typical 90 degree conditions frustrates me, as this weather is predicted for the 2024 Paris Olympics.
There are several steps athletes can take to mitigate the effects of heat. First, they can acclimate their bodies by training in warmer weather before the big day. But even though the body is highly acclimatized, it’s only a matter of winning a race or setting a new record. Unpredictable weather and high temperatures can derail lofty goals. There’s only so much an athlete can prepare for. Needless to say, exposing your body to heat is dangerous. It can lead to cramps, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke. Overexertion can even be fatal.
In outdoor endurance events, participants should expect cooler temperatures as a rule of thumb. The marathon is perhaps the most striking example of how weather can affect individual performance. Notably, many of the records were broken not at the Olympics but at other world championships held outside of summer. A study of 60 major marathons around the world found that participants’ average top speeds were recorded when temperatures were between 40 and 50 degrees Fahrenheit. Another study reported that elite athletes could expect to run between 2.5 and 13 minutes longer when temperatures spiked from a chilly 50 degrees Fahrenheit to a balmy 77 degrees Fahrenheit. Even people who are accustomed to the heat will perform better if the conditions on race day are colder than those they were originally prepared for.
Outdoor events are obviously most affected by the heat, but even athletes competing indoors can experience subtle declines in performance. Everyone will be exposed to the elements at some point, whether it’s while traveling between venues or during breaks before an event. Athletes need to be mindful of staying hydrated to stay safe. A poor night’s sleep on a warmer than usual night can make you feel sluggish and less alert the next day.
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Slower reaction times and more tactical errors not only hurt a player’s ability to break records, but sluggish athletes also make important team and individual events less exciting for viewers at home. How much do you want to watch a group of athletes struggle to see who can suffer the least in the heat?
This important issue should get the left excited about Kamala. I’m an epidemiologist who fact-checks the news. There’s one story I always refute: I lost a lot of weight. I didn’t expect that to happen. The most mocked streaming service has had a makeover.
Be aware of the hard work that referees have to do, running around under the hot sun to perform their duties, and how that stress can affect the outcome of a match. A study of 12 soccer referees found that they were moderately dehydrated after a match. Even if they hydrate during the match, it is not enough to replace the fluids lost through sweat. Like other athletes who are exposed to heat stress, referees may be more prone to making incorrect calls.
If there’s any small consolation, it’s that the heat affects everyone, so any athlete aiming for a gold medal will have to outperform their rivals in a tough environment. But it also means the best world records of all time will be gone. We will be able to judge a person’s excellence only by the great people they played on the field one day, not the great people in the history books. That prospect is saddening.
Records being broken again and again reflect the never-ending growth of humanity. The lack of new milestones makes it feel like humanity is almost stagnating. It confirms that our sins against the environment have finally caught up with us, putting a glass ceiling on what we are capable of. Sooner or later, our goal as a species will no longer be to excel, but simply to survive.
