This trade deadline machinations may not be so complicated after all.
It may seem like the Orioles are trying to thread the needle between replenishing their team with a championship-caliber young core while not sacrificing their ability to add from within in the future, and they did so before the trade market really heated up this month through a pair of opportunistic trades on Friday — trading reliever Seranty Dominguez and outfielder Cristian Pache to the Philadelphia Phillies for Austin Hayes and starting pitcher Zach Eflin to the Tampa Bay Rays for three promising but ultimately mid-level prospects.
They probably couldn’t have crafted a better trade proposition even if they tried, and for an organization whose value-based process doesn’t necessarily make sense in the in-season trade market, they found two trade propositions that are out of this world.
Hayes is a tough negotiator. The Orioles are a winning team now, in large part because of him. And every winning team needs a player like him. He’s tough, solid at the plate, good defensively and has the perspective that only someone who’s been through tough times can have. His .872 OPS since returning from the disabled list hasn’t been enough to make up for the damage a poor start to the season did to his reputation, but it’s clear he’s valuable to suitors looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder.
The Phillies had been after Hayes for the past two years, according to president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, and the Orioles clearly remembered that and tried to use their interest, and Hayes’ resurgence since May, to solve some issues.
One was to target a proven bullpen bolster in the 29-year-old Dominguez, who has an $8 million option for next year with a $500,000 buyout. He’s a proven player throughout his career, with underlying stats that suggest he’ll be better than he is in 2024 and is capable of immediately slotting into the back end of the Orioles’ bullpen, as he did on Friday, and being a reliable bullpen anchor.
Acquiring Pache is a low-risk, high-reward piece that makes sense in some ways. If Hayes was fully qualified to be the team’s right-handed hitter and fourth outfielder (and if that’s still an issue, Jorge Mateo’s elbow injury means he can’t take over that role), Pache’s speed and high-level defense would make him a good fit for that role. They don’t have anyone else with that profile in the organization, and it’s a tall order to get him to work at the plate with Ryan Fuller, Matt Borgschulte and Cody Ash at the Orioles’ plate, but he has proven discipline and power-hitting ability at the plate that could be leveraged.
It may be worth dreaming about, but with Hayes gone and Mateo out, it’s worth keeping the reality that he excels at. Trading Hayes would also have the knock-on effect of giving Colton Cowser and Heston Kierstad more at-bats. For the latter, manager Brandon Hyde has been reluctant to give him more opportunities against right-handed hitters, but in the limited sample so far, he seems worthy of an expanded role. If Hyde wants to keep Connor Norby in a corner outfield position at this level, he could see more playing time.
Still, the move was a strange first blow to the Orioles’ deadline activities. Trading a longtime veteran for a reliever bolster wasn’t the impactful move everyone expected. Instead, it was one that many in the community and baseball world were reserving judgment on until the full extent of the team’s activities became clear.
As it turned out, it didn’t take long. With three of their top starting pitchers returning from elbow injuries, the Rays had some room in the starting rotation, and they used Eflin, who they signed ahead of the market immediately after the 2022 season, to acquire three top prospects from the Orioles in right-handed pitcher Jackson Baumeister, infielder Mack Holbert and outfielder Matthew Etzel.
Eflin has a knack for using six different pitches to keep hitters off-balance, and he limits the damage by making weak contact with his sinker and cutter. Like Dominguez, Eflin has had success limiting his innings, and Eflin’s underlying numbers this year suggest he’s doing better than his superficial numbers suggest. But Eflin adds some pieces to the Orioles’ rotation, all of which are something they’ve been looking for since the front office set aside draft responsibilities last week and began focusing on the trade deadline.
One is reliability. Outside of Corbin Burns and Grayson Rodriguez, there are plenty of question marks in the Orioles’ starting rotation. Eflin has pitched at least five innings and allowed four or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 19 starts. Six of those starts saw him go at least six innings and allow one or no runs. With an $18 million contract for next year, Eflin adds a bit of long-term visibility to the starting rotation.
But that’s for now. There are a few pitchers who could replace Rodriguez in Game 2 of a playoff series, but the cost would be prohibitive. The Orioles could still get one, and spending more than $20 million on Eflin means they might be willing to shoulder even more salary to get one.
But the real cost of a deal this time of year is, ultimately, young talent. The Orioles gave up some guys here, let’s be clear about that. But if their goal was to keep the top of the farm team intact and cut areas of strength, they did just that.
Baumeister was the 63rd overall pick in last year’s draft, the highest pick Baltimore general manager Mike Elias has ever given to a pitcher. He struck out 91 batters in 70 2/3 innings for High-A Aberdeen. He was looking to expand his pitching options with the IronBirds, but his hitting ability was still one of the best pitching prospects in the organization.
Holbert, last year’s 53rd overall pick, had a .745 OPS and nine homers with Aberdeen, while Etzel, a 10th-round pick, had an .808 OPS with Aberdeen and Double-A Bowie. It makes sense the Rays would want both of them, as they’re both good in so many ways. They’re exactly the kind of players the Orioles would have no hesitation in trading for if it came down to it.
Taken together, these signings could be enough for the Orioles to upgrade their team at the deadline after being a very good team for most of this season but not playing consistently recently. A lot can happen between now and Tuesday.
If nothing else, the Orioles will have accomplished at least their basic expectations from the trade window: keeping their high-caliber talent base intact, with the bonuses of strengthening their rotation and relief corps and clearing a congested outfield.
