It’s trade season. As trade activity begins to pick up and we head into the final weekend before Tuesday’s trade deadline, I answered some fresh questions from subscribers. We discussed a seller’s market, surprise teams, the latest on big-name targets, and more.
Note: Questions have been edited for clarity and length.
With a strong seller’s market, do you foresee any surprise teams or players joining the mix? — Jake M.
I agree that it is certainly a seller’s market. The Rays, Marlins and Nationals have made big gains in trades for Randy Arozarena, AJ Pack and Hunter Harvey, respectively. The teams that I am most surprised by switching to selling are the Cubs and Giants. The Cubs have had multiple talks with teams about starting pitcher Jameson Taillon and relievers Hector Neris and Mark Leiter Jr. The Giants have released other players, including Blake Snell, Alex Cobb, Mike Yastrzemski, Michael Conforto and Wilmer Flores.
What would a trade between the Cardinals and Giants for Snell look like? — Patrick R.
I think any trade for Snell would require a key player to be named later, since it’s unclear if he will receive his 2025 salary ($30 million) or return to free agency. That decision will likely depend on how he pitches late in the season and whether he can come off the disabled list for the remainder of the season. As for a potential trade for Snell to St. Louis, the initial return would likely start with Cardinals pitching prospects such as Gordon Gracefo and Bryan Holiday, and perhaps some minor league prospects such as outfielder Travis Honeyman, a 2023 third-round draft pick, and the aforementioned PTBNL. If Snell is traded, I think the Astros, Twins, and Red Sox would make the most sense as his destinations.
What do you think the Giants will do next? — Johnny M.
Since I don’t think the Giants are going to make the playoffs, they should do exactly what they’re doing now: sell. Plus, Garrett Crochette is unlikely to be traded now, and Detroit’s Tarik Skubal is asking too much and probably won’t be moved either. Snell could be the best starting pitcher they can get at the deadline, so trading him makes a lot of sense. The Giants are the fourth-best team in the NL West, and I don’t see that changing this year. So the rest of the year is the time to shed payroll and retool for 2025 and beyond.
The Mets’ big turnaround makes them a team to watch over the next few days. Could they be active buyers? — Sam Z.
The Mets are playing like a playoff team, so rather than being a minor buyer of a relief pitcher at the deadline, they need to turn around and look to bolster their starting rotation with Snell, Jack Flaherty and Erick Feddy as well.
Given Crochet’s recent developments, do you think he’ll be traded before the deadline or do you think the White Sox will wait until the offseason? – Julian W.
I think there’s a good chance he’ll stay, since I don’t think any team is going to give him a 5-year deal right now when they don’t have to in the offseason. The only team that’s likely willing to do that is the Dodgers, and it’s not a bad bet they’ll make a trade to get him and pay him whatever he wants, but my guess is he’ll stay with the White Sox through the winter.
Going deeper
Trading for Garrett Crochette: Which team (and prospect package) could acquire him?
What do you think will happen to Flaherty in the end? — Louis G.
Of all the starting pitchers traded at the deadline, I think he’ll be the best pitcher for the rest of the season. He’ll fit on any team that’s contending for a championship. If he gets traded, the three most likely teams are the Astros, Braves, or Dodgers.
Do you think the Blue Jays will trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette before the deadline? — No names revealed
They’re not going to trade Guerrero or Bichette at the deadline. That’s it. No further discussion. Let’s move on!
I love the Front Office Show. I watch it every week. I’m a big Tigers fan, but I’m worried that the team won’t do anything at this trade deadline that will make them stronger in the future. What are the chances that the trade you proposed of Tarik Skubal going to the Orioles will happen? — John G.
Thank you for supporting the award-winning Front Office Show, airing Sundays from 10am-1pm ET on SiriusXM MLB Network Radio. I appreciate it. I’m glad you like my trade idea, but apparently the Orioles weren’t all that keen. It looks like Skubal will likely stay with the Tigers. But I think Detroit would get a strong return for Flaherty and possibly closer Jason Foley.
Who are the players that no one is publicly talking about that are going to be moved? And if they are, will the front office do something to “surprise” fans? (For example, the Cubs have signaled a “play 25 years” policy, but something might happen, like a Christian Yelich injury, and they might suddenly reverse course when they were told they would.) — Chad C.
Chad, I like that question. I think the first part can be answered by Brandon Lowe of the Rays or Brian De La Cruz of the Marlins. For the second part, I think the Reds could surprise fans with a “buyer-slash-buyer” trade.
Pirates acquire: CF Jazz Chisholm Jr., OF Brian De La Cruz, RHP Declan Cronin
Marlins acquire: SS Mitch Jebb, LHP Michael Kennedy, OF Torres Gonzalez, CF Bae Jijuan, RHP Josh Fleming
— Michael A.
The Marlins said no, which isn’t good enough for their side of the proposed trade.
Pittsburgh needs to bolster its offense and relief pitching, and it has a deep pool of pitching prospects. Imagine if the Pirates sent right-hander Braxton Ashcraft and left-hander Hunter Barko to the Nationals for reliever Kyle Finnegan and outfielder Lane Thomas. I think the framework for this trade would work, even if the Pirates had to trade pitchers for others in the prospect pool. — Joseph G.
I think this trade is good for both teams. Great idea, Joseph G!
Hi Jim. In your last mailbag, I asked if the Rangers could pull off an upset when they were six games back, and you said probably not, given the circumstances at the time. After winning five straight games, the Rangers are now 2.5 games back with help from the struggling Mariners and Astros. How much do you think this will change the Rangers’ approach at the trade deadline, and do you think they’ll pursue a player like Brent Rooker or Yandy Diaz? — Liam M.
The Rangers are certainly looking for a hitter — perhaps a left-handed outfielder or designated hitter, or maybe a right-handed platoon hitter — and possibly adding a relief pitcher.
Who do you think are the likely trade candidates the Yankees will acquire, and what assets would the Yankees be willing to offer in exchange? — Moishe U.
The Yankees’ biggest offensive need is a third baseman, and while Isaac Paredes from the Rays, Ryan McMahon from the Rockies or Jake Berger from the Marlins are all likely but unlikely, they could instead acquire a second baseman like Jonathan India from the Reds or Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Marlins.
What do you think about the trade in which the Orioles sent Ryan Mountcastle and Jud Fabian to the Astros to acquire a prospect to balance Ryan Pressly? — Jacob S.
Good for the Orioles, bad for the Astros. If I were Houston, I wouldn’t trade Pressly. Instead, I would use all my trade assets to acquire another starting pitcher and possibly another relief pitcher. Additionally, I think it’s more likely the Astros will acquire Yandy Diaz in a trade with the Rays to improve their first base situation.
A lot of division leaders have had losing records recently. Will that change the front office’s approach? I’d like to hear more about the Guardians specifically (but I’m also interested in the topic in general). — Kyle M.
Don’t worry about the recent winning or losing streak of the division leader. They are in first place, and their wins and losses have been a roller coaster of ups and downs throughout the 162-game season. If they are in first place today, they can win the division. So, nothing changes in the big picture. (Of course, as a GM, you’re always gathering information and making adjustments.) That being said, the Guardians need another starting pitcher and batting line if they want to sleep easy. The Twins and Royals aren’t going away.
It makes sense for the Cubs to be sellers. But what if they do the opposite and trade away some minor league surplus players who are blocked at the major league level to get a slugger like Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? We may never get a starting pitching staff this good again. Who knows what will happen if they make the playoffs. What do you think? — Eric M.
I don’t agree with the Cubs’ decision to abandon the season and sell. They entered Friday just 5 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot in a National League dominated by mediocre teams. Their starting pitchers have the third-best ERA in the NL. Adding two relief pitchers and two hitters, along with a stronger catcher, would still get them in the playoffs. Though they’re about a game behind the Rays and Giants in the standings, the Cubs’ path is much better. I’m not saying the Cubs should trade top prospects to get these guys, but trading mid-level prospects to get better players is the route I’d take.
As for Guerrero, he won’t be traded, and even if he was, the Cubs would have to trade their best prospect to acquire him, which would contradict what they’ve done as a franchise for the last five years.
Do you think it would make sense for the Yankees to gauge the trade market for Clay Holmes and use some of the prospects they acquire for him (and some of their own players) to try and replace him with a younger closer who can strike out batters, like the Athletics’ Mason Miller? I’d be more inclined to not sign Holmes long-term after this season for closer money. — Joe L.
Trading Holmes is not the answer. Trading Tanner Scott to the Marlins or Carlos Estevez to the Angels to add Holmes would be the Yankees’ best bet right now. Also, Miller is unlikely to be traded at this year’s trade deadline.
What are the rules for allowing teams to use a “Date Designated Later” designation like the Mariners and Rays did? — Mike B. … Good question. I’ve always wondered how much flexibility teams have in deciding who their “Date Designated Later” players are. — Lance R.
Players to be named at a later date must be identified within six months of the trade taking place. In most cases, the teams agree on a list of potential players the receiving club can choose from. There may be multiple lists for the club to choose from depending on whether the traded player does not go on the disabled list, the team makes the playoffs, wins a playoff series, or wins the World Series. The PTBNL cannot be a player on the IL at the time of the trade, nor a player who was on the 40-man roster the previous season; the player becomes a minor league prospect or questionable player. There is also another clause that allows for a cash consideration to be exchanged instead if the teams cannot agree on a player, which must be renegotiated before any deal involving the PTBNL can be finalized.
Going deeper
Bowden: Seven trades to see at the deadline, starting with the big Yankees-Rays trade
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MLB Trade Deadline Q&A: Bowden discusses trade scenarios and latest buzz
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MLB All 30: One week left, bold trade deadline predictions for each team
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MLB front offices are feeling the most and least pressure this trade deadline
(Photo of Blake Snell by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
