From the “new normal” to “unprecedented times,” the pandemic has given rise to many catchphrases. Now, four years later, as travel industry sales trends begin to resemble those of pre-COVID times, a new word is becoming popular: “normalcy.”
According to a survey by Travel Experts, a Raleigh, North Carolina-based host agency (No. 27 on Travel Weekly’s Power List), 16.8% of advisors said their sales for the first half of 2024 were lower than the same period in 2023. Nearly half, 49.2%, reported that their sales have increased this year, while another 34% said their sales are the same as last year.
While more than half of advisors reported stagnant or declining sales compared to last year, citing factors such as the presidential election and travel costs, 2023 has been a record-breaking year for Travel Experts and many other travel agencies and agent networks.
Travel Leaders Network is one of them, said president Roger Block, who expects this year to be better than 2023. 2024 is on track to be another strong year for the network, but Block said bookings are “trending flat, not declining.”
Similarly, Kevin O’Brien, senior vice president at Travel Edge Network, said his company is also seeing strong year-over-year growth.
Kevin O’Brien
“Are we seeing slower growth than we saw in ’22-’23? Yes,” O’Brien said. “Are we seeing flat or stagnant growth? No.”
Signature Travel Network CEO Alex Sharp said he expects 2024 revenue to be 20% higher than 2023. But that’s due to higher rates, and in terms of volume, Signature is “on par with 2023,” Sharp said.
The normalization of demand at travel agencies is in line with what many in the travel industry are reporting. “We expect demand to reach more normal levels by the end of the year,” Hilton CEO Chris Nassetta said on an earnings call in February. Similarly, Marriott CEO Anthony Capuano said on an earnings call in May that “demand has normalized” in the U.S. and Canada.
It’s a trend U.S. Travel is also seeing: In an interview in May, CEO Geoff Freeman said domestic leisure travel is “returning to normal, albeit at a significantly higher rate than pre-pandemic.”
“We’re a little drunk on the leisure travel industry, and all good parties have to come to an end,” Freeman said. “So that may be what’s happening right now.”
The future looks bright
Although travel demand has yet to reach the peak it achieved in 2023, the industry remains bullish on the future.
“I think consumers are still really looking for experiences, and they’ve realized that travel creates memories that last a lifetime,” Block says. “The world is so diverse, and you can’t learn about it just by reading books, so people are really willing to spend money on that, so I think the market will continue to grow.”
He pointed to suppliers investing heavily in new products such as hotels, resorts, ships and new itineraries as evidence of that growth.
Block also noted that the economy and stock market are “doing extremely well.”
Ensemble President Michael Johnson also said consumer sentiment regarding travel remains strong.
“Changes in consumer spending post-pandemic continue to show that travel remains a priority, leading to sustained interest and activity in the travel industry,” he said. “While growth may slow as a result of a variety of factors, including elections, inflation and geopolitical events, we expect demand to remain robust.”
The election seems to be on everyone’s mind. Historically, election years have proven to be slower travel years, with some advisors surveyed by Travel Expert citing the election as a factor in declining sales this year.
Block said the Travel Leaders Network hasn’t seen the typical presidential election downturn so far, and while that could happen in the future, “when we talk to travel agents, booking patterns are still strong,” he said.
LUXURY DURABILITY
One area that appears to be largely unaffected is luxury travel sales.
“Luxury travel, by its nature, is a little more resilient,” said Travel Edge Network’s O’Brien.
Of the 49.2% of Travel Expert advisors who said their sales this year were higher than last year, many attributed this to an increased focus on luxury sales, in addition to new clients and referrals.
That has led some travel companies to refocus on customers who are more likely to book suites, first-class tickets or even private air travel, said Claire Canady, Travel Expert’s North Carolina division president.
“The time it takes to book mass-market travel is similar to that of luxury travel, but the ultimate commission revenue is very different,” Canady said. “So that gives you a business position that makes it clear where to focus.”
Johanna Janechill contributed to this story.
