China “will probably experience the largest absolute population decline [of 204 million] “Between 2024 and 2054, potential losses for Japan and Russia reach 21 million and 10 million, respectively,” the report states.
However, longer-term population projections are more uncertain, the report adds.
India overtook China in April last year to become the world’s most populous country, according to the United Nations, but official statistics are not available because the coronavirus prevented it from completing its once-in-a-decade census as scheduled in 2021. China’s population fell for the second consecutive year last year, with its total population shrinking by 2.08 million to 1.497 billion.
China will report just 9.02 million births in 2023, the lowest level since records began in 1949.
But while demographers expect a temporary recovery in the number of newborns over the next few years as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic eases, a series of pro-birth policies are implemented and this year is the auspicious Year of the Dragon in the Chinese zodiac, the longer-term outlook predicts that births will continue to decline.
The global fertility rate is 2.25 children per woman, but a replacement level of 2.1 children is needed to maintain a stable population size.
According to the United Nations, China, like about one-fifth of the world’s countries and regions, has what is known as an “extremely low fertility rate” – fewer than 1.4 children per woman in her lifetime.
China’s total fertility rate is expected to fall to 1.09 in 2022, according to estimates by the China Population Development Research Center, while that of Shanghai, one of China’s wealthiest cities, is expected to fall to 0.6 in 2023, the city said.
03:15
Amid population decline, young feminists oppose China’s pro-birth initiative
Amid population decline, young feminists oppose China’s pro-birth initiative
China did not officially release its total fertility rate for last year, but demographers said the country’s rate could fall below 1 in 2023.
The UN report estimated that Hong Kong and South Korea will have the lowest fertility rates in 2024, falling to an average of below 0.75 children per woman.
The UN added that world population is likely to peak this century sooner than expected, perhaps to about 8.2 billion people in the mid-2080s.
“The world’s population in 2100 is expected to be 6% lower, or about 700 million people, than projected a decade ago,” the UN report states.
“The earlier projected peak in world population is due to several factors, including lower than expected fertility rates in the world’s largest countries in recent years, particularly China.”
China’s population is expected to peak and fall by 20 million to 1.39 billion by 2035, creating more uncertainty about the long-term economic outlook and potentially leading to delayed retirement and accelerated automation, the Economist Intelligence Unit said in February.
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